Greetings, friend. So, you fancy a flutter on some matches based on our predictions? You must be mad! MAD! We have no idea what we’re doing. But, if you insist…
The below is an attempt to show graphically our odds relative to the bookies. However, as the bookies odds never add up to 100% (sneaky buggers) the graph looks a little unusual. Any questions, let us know.
Essentially, it can be read that whenever the bookies give LESS chance to a team than we have, there is an opportunity for value.
From this it can be read the bookies have the match well price, and there is little opportunity for value. No surprises there.
Potentially something below. We give the Australian more chance than the bookies, and depending on how this lines up with your own thoughts, mathematically they could be worth a bet.
Our recommendations for betting are as follows.
As mentioned here, each predicted score is actually a metric to describe the relative historical strength of the two teams, based on their performances over previous years. What this means is that our predictions are generally a good place to start in forming an opinion on what may happen in upcoming matches, but you may want to plonk on top some of your own knowledge as well.
- For example, we don’t currently take into account player selection or the impact of ‘big’, or Championship defining, games, so if you think that there are a few other qualitative factors that may influence the outcome of the match then feel free to judge how much they will affect the predictions and bet accordingly.
We wouldn’t recommend straying too far from our predictions, generally speaking they are pretty accurate, around 80% at the time of writing, but if you think we’ve missed something, feel free to adjust for it. And please let us know after, thanks!
We’d also recommend looking at the odds relative to our predictions, and betting if it appears there is a large discrepancy. You could also use an odds booster like the below to maximise your chances.
- For example, in the 2017 Six Nations opening match between Scotland and Ireland at Murrayfield, Ireland were tipped by the bookies as strong favourites. However, our model gave Scotland a reasonable chance of victory – we still had Ireland as favourites, but it was only by 3 or 4 points, rather than the bookies 10 – 15. In this situation, it may have been worth a punt on Scotland due to the mismatch in the predictions and odds. Indeed, Scotland went on to win that game…
A couple of don’ts … (or, we’d really advise against)
- Put a massive accumulator on all the games we’ve predicted. Some of them will be 50:50s and therefore could go either way. Have a look at the % chances we’ve given each team in each match and bet accordingly.
- Come crying to us when your bet didn’t come off. This is sport, unpredictable stuff happens, and that’s why we love it!
And the obvious one to finish…
- DON’T bet what you can’t afford to lose. Be sensible.
If you have any questions about the data, the model or anything else, please don’t hesitate to get in contact. There’s nothing we’d like better than a good argument about the importance of home advantage in the outcome of a rugby match!